Avg attacker reconnaissance time for peer-class protocols

Evidence summary #

No documented pre-strike reconnaissance by attacker wallets against CTF Exchange contracts. UMA whale governance attack (March 2025, $7M Ukraine mineral market) was opportunistic — whale already held 25% of UMA voting tokens and voted; not a multi-day stealth reconnaissance pattern. CTF nonce-race exploit (Feb 2026 disclosure) was a protocol design observation by a researcher, not prior attacker reconnaissance. No peer-class prediction market incidents involve documented 78-day reconnaissance-before-strike patterns.

Sources #

Methodology #

Report the average number of days of attacker reconnaissance activity before a strike on peer-class protocols (lending/DEX/bridge/perps), sourced from the hack database.

See the full factor methodology and distribution across all protocols →