TVL anomaly — % drop in <1h

Evidence summary #

KelpDAO April 2026 contagion caused ~9.62% Morpho TVL drop (from ~$11.7B to ~$10.2B) — below 30% threshold. Sector-correlated suppression applies. No single-protocol TVL drain event detected. RD-F-098 would NOT fire today.

Detail #

Threshold: TVL_now / TVL_baseline_30d < 0.70 in 60-minute window. Observed drop was 9.62% over days, not 30%+ in 60 minutes, and was sector-correlated (Aave $15B+ outflow, DeFi-wide $13B TVL drop). Both suppression rules (below threshold AND sector-correlated) apply. Current TVL ~$6.6B represents normal operation.

Sources #

Methodology #

Detect whether TVL drops >X% within 1 hour versus the trailing 30-day baseline (X configurable per protocol TVL tier).

See the full factor methodology and distribution across all protocols →