TVL anomaly — % drop in <1h

Evidence summary #

Cat 6B exploit-in-progress signal (T-09 v1 launch signal). TVL at $319.87M as of 2026-05-16. 30d baseline from data-cache: mean $392.6M, std $33.1M, CoV 0.084. Current TVL / 30d mean ratio approximately 0.816 — below 1.0 but this reflects a gradual 30-day downtrend (-21.63%), not an acute 1-hour drop event. 1d change -0.99% — not anomalous. T-09 tier-A threshold requires TVL_now / TVL_baseline_30d < 0.70 over 60-minute trailing window; current posture does not breach this threshold. TVL has declined 81% from the $1.69B Jan 2025 peak (following LIBRA scandal), but this was a prolonged market-driven exit over months, not a single exploit-class drain event. Signal not yet wired for Meteora in production.

Sources #

Methodology #

Detect whether TVL drops >X% within 1 hour versus the trailing 30-day baseline (X configurable per protocol TVL tier).

See the full factor methodology and distribution across all protocols →