TVL anomaly — % drop in <1h

Evidence summary #

TVL at 2026-05-07: ~$5.0B combined (Arbitrum Bridge2 ~$3.58B + Hyperliquid L1 ~$1.43B). 30-day change: ~-15% (peak ~$5.97B Feb 2025; ~$4.23B 30 days prior; ~$3.58B Arbitrum leg now). Threshold: TVL_now / TVL_baseline_30d < 0.70 in 60-minute trailing window. Observed 30-day delta of -15% is well above the -30% threshold; no rapid intra-hour drop documented. Signal would not fire today. The December 2024 DPRK-triggered $60M+ USDC outflow (~1.3% of then-TVL) would not have met the 30% threshold. Signal is applicable and wired for Bridge2 TVL ($3.58B on Arbitrum) and L1 TVL ($1.43B).

Sources #

Methodology #

Detect whether TVL drops >X% within 1 hour versus the trailing 30-day baseline (X configurable per protocol TVL tier).

See the full factor methodology and distribution across all protocols →