TVL anomaly — % drop in <1h
Ethena's assessment for RD-F-098 — scored yellow on the v1.7.0 rubric. The evidence below is the curator's reasoning for this score.
Evidence summary #
TVL is $3.79B as of 2026-04-28; 30-day change -35.58% (baseline ~$5.88B 30 days ago); 1-day change +1.07%. The 1h window is currently stable — tier-A fire criterion (>30% drop in 1h) is not met today. Historical stress test (Oct 2025 '1011' event): TVL fell from $14.3B to $6.55B over ~72 hours (-54%), with the tier-B precursor rule firing repeatedly during the event. The signal is applicable and detection math shows elevated sensitivity: current TVL is already 35.6% below the 30d baseline, meaning any further acute drain would quickly approach the tier-B precursor threshold. Protocol is above baseline alert sensitivity for this signal.
Sources #
- URLDefiLlama: Ethena TVL dataDefiLlama API — TVL $3,790,619,996, 30d change -35.58%, 1d change +1.07%retrieved 2026-04-28
- USDe outflows slash Ethena TVL by 50% after October 10 crash | AMBCryptoAMBCrypto: USDe TVL dropped 50%+ after October 2025 market crashretrieved 2026-04-28
Methodology #
Detect whether TVL drops >X% within 1 hour versus the trailing 30-day baseline (X configurable per protocol TVL tier).
See the full factor methodology and distribution across all protocols →