TVL anomaly — % drop in <1h

Evidence summary #

TVL anomaly — % drop in <1h [T-09 v1] | Applicable: Yes — $115.8M TVL directly measurable | Current TVL: $115.8M (DefiLlama, 2026-05-05T12:10:03Z). 30d change: -19.99%. 24h change: -1.91%. The 30d sustained decline reflects post-November 2025 exploit structural exodus, not an acute intraday drain event in the assessment window. The 1h tier-A threshold (>30% in 60 minutes) has not been breached in the current window. Yellow because: (1) the November 2025 exploit would have produced the largest tier-A fire in the assessment set (TVL ~$443M → ~$186M in <30 minutes); (2) current TVL is 97% below all-time peak, making the absolute remaining TVL more fragile to threshold breaches; (3) the 30d decline of ~20% erodes the baseline buffer before the threshold is reached. | Threshold: TVL drops >30% within 1h vs 30d baseline | Would fire: No (acute threshold not breached in current window); precursor erosion justifies yellow

Sources #

Methodology #

Detect whether TVL drops >X% within 1 hour versus the trailing 30-day baseline (X configurable per protocol TVL tier).

See the full factor methodology and distribution across all protocols →